(This story was original published on November 11, 2014, on the Latino news web site Voxxi.)
THE LATINO VOTE ONCE considered a lock in the Democratic coalition and crucial to the party’s prospects in 2016 and beyond is showing signs of possibly slipping away.
While it may be prematue to call it an exodus to the Republican Party, Hispanic voters helped the GOP gain ground in some decisive races in which the mid-term elections hinted at a shift in Latino voting patterns.
Overall, Latinos voted for Democrats by a two-to-one margin, according to exit polling and other election returns, but in surprising states the Democratic Party’s reliance on past Hispanic voting trends proved to be a bust.
In Texas, Republican governor-elect Gregg Abbott carried 44 percent of the Latino vote, beating the mark set by George W. Bush in his campaigns there, that made for an even greater 20 percent rout of Wendy Davis – and even carrying some counties in heavily Hispanic South Texas.
The news for Democrats in the Lone Star States gets worse when you consider that Republican Senator John Cornyn captured an astounding 48 percent of the Latino vote, winning re-election over Democrat David Alameel, who got 47 percent of the Hispanic electorate, according to exit polls.
Then there is this to weigh:
Texas is now redder than it was before the election, and this on the heels of a Battleground Texas campaign that boasted 34,000 volunteers and 7.5 million voter contacts to help Democratic darling Davis’ campaign and supposedly lay the foundation for winning the state’s 38 electoral votes for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2016.
It got redder because in the 23rd Congressional District, a largely Latino district between San Antonio and El Paso, Republican challenger Will Hurd unseated Democratic incumbent Pete Gallego, relying on heavy support from Hispanic voters in the Alamo City area.
Rubbing salt on a sensitive political wound, Hurd becomes the first black Republican from Texas elected to the House of Representatives and since Reconstruction and joins the largest delegation ever of Texas Republicans in Congress.
“I believe this election was a lost opportunity for Democrats,” National Council of La Raza President Janet Murguia said in what may have been the understatement of the election.
In Colorado, where President Barack Obama’s success suggested Democratic strength, Republican Cory Gardner unseated Democratic incumbent Mark Udall – heir of a longtime Democratic family dynasty there -- in a stunning Senate upset helped by carrying 23 percent of the growing Latino vote that he aggressively pursued.
In the heart of increasingly Hispanic Dixie, Latinos in Georgia are already 4 percent of the electorate and they raised eyebrows as both the Republican gubernatorial incumbent and Senate candidate took nearly half of the Latino vote -- 47 percent for Gov. Nathan Deal and 42 percent for Senate winner David Perdue.
In the American heartland, Kansas, Latinos also voted Republican in unexpected fashion -- voting 47 percent to help re-elect Republican Gov. Sam Brownback.
In Nevada, Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval not only won re-election but also did it by getting 47 percent of the Latino vote, a dramatic increase from the 15 percent that he received when he was first elected.
In Florida, it appears that the combination of a poor Latino turnout and lower Hispanic margins for Democrats caused the defeat of some Democratic candidates, including former governor Charlie Crist, losing to incumbent Rick Scott who received 45 percent of the Latino vote.
Has there been an unforeseen shift in Latino voting trends or was this just a reaction to frustration with President Obama’s broken promises on immigration reform, the most recent his decision to take executive action on the issue before the election?
As it was, all his party’s Senate incumbents in historically red states that he was trying to protect lost anyway.
Illinois Congressman Luis Gutierrez may have put it best when he asked rhetorically during a news conference in Chicago the day after the election:
“You repress the vote in the Latino community and what did you come up with?”
It may even be that the Latino vote, whether through opposition or by boycotting the polls, even helped decide the fate of the Senate in the final two years of the Obama presidency.
Republicans captured narrow control of the Senate, and some Latino groups such as Presente Action had urged a boycott of four Democratic Senate candidates supported a procedural vote that the group considered to be heavily unfavorable to undocumented immigrants.
Among those four senators was Kay Hagan, the North Carolina incumbent who suffered a surprising defeat in her re-election race.
Immigration activist were quick to dance on Hagan’s political grave.
“Tonight you lost your job, but you will still go back to your family,” activist Lizbeth Mateo wrote on a Facebook post. “However, because of the inaction and ineptitude of your party many parents will not get that chance. Many will not go back to their kids tonight. If you ask me, you got what you deserve.”
A second senator targeted by Presente Action, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, was soundly beaten by Republican Tom Cotton. A third, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, faces a tough runoff Dec. 6. Only Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire squeezed through to win re-election Tuesday.
What does this augur for 2016, especially in battleground states like Texas where the blueprint for turning it purple is now in shambles?
Petra Falcon, executive director of the advocacy group Promise Arizona that supports comprehensive immigration reform, offered up advice that might be a start for both parties.
“In presidential election years we know that is when there is going to be a battleground all across the country,” says Falcon, whose state’s Latino population has tripled since 1990. “And I think both political parties and candidates need to (understand) this growing Latino… population is the largest growing electorate in the country.
“And they need to embrace the issues that are important to us.”
