MAYBE FORMER HOUSING SECRETARY Julían Castro just didn’t pay attention to those Iowa wind chill warnings about the signs of hypothermia: confusion, shivering, difficulty speaking, sleepiness and stiff muscles. Brrr! And in Nevada he may have ignored Las Vegas' biggest rule — that you don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
And that's proven costly because Castro’s nascent bid for the Democratic presidential running mate spot, along with his mantel as the rising star of Latino politics, may now be history after the first three contests of the 2020 presidential perimary and caucus season.
After Saturday's Nevada Caucuses, Senator Elizabeth Warren’s disappointing showing so far not only threatens her struggling presidential campaign but has also unexpectedly brought Castro’s own political future crashing down to earth.
All that speculation that the former San Antonio mayor was jockeying for the No. 2 spot on the ticket? Forget it. That talk of how he would use his stumping on behalf of Warren to regroup for possibly another presidential run down the way? It’s not looking good. And the thought in this age of identity politics that Castro was destined to be the party’s Latino savior?
Well, Julían, you know that progressive icon, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez? She’s the one looking like the future Democratic messiah. AOC and her mentor Sen. Bernie Sanders’ Latino outreach team out-politicked you for that much-ballyhooed small but rapidly growing Latino vote in Iowa.
It was a triumph in a small state with a smattering of Latinos. But it proved to be symbolic, and AOC and Bernie’ Latino organization did the same again in Nevada Saturday.
By Super Tuesday March 3, where heavily Latino California and Texas and their gigantic batch of delegates are up for grabs, political cash-strapped Elizabeth Warren’s campaign could be in the dust — and Castro wishing he hadn’t jumped to endorse the Massachusetts senator just days after ending his own presidential candidacy.
“Maybe Warren was just the wrong candidate for Julian to hitch his star to,” longtime California Democratic Party activist Richard Zaldivar said in the aftermath of Warren’s discouraging performance in New Hampshire. “Julian could have done the Latino community greater justice if he would have withheld his support for a candidate until after the [nomination was won].
“He could have leveraged his role with the nominee and then tried to gain traction as a heavyweight rather than jumping into a potential sinking ship.”
Julían Castro gambled on Warren and rolled a seven. Certainly in Iowa, a state whose Latino vote since 2016 has doubled to 6 percent of the electorate.
Louis F. Moret, a former Democratic National Committee member from California and longtime Latino politics consultant, believes Castro blew a rare opportunity to showcase his value to a national campaign.
“If [Castro’s] on board with Warren, wouldn’t his worth be in Iowa with that segment of Latino voters in that quad city area, but where was he?” asked Moret. “To me he showed he was worthless. He doesn’t have any viability to be on the ticket.”
Castro’s troubles may go beyond Iowa and New Hampshire. Even before a caucus vote was cast, Castro’s stock had already taken a disheartening hit when nine of his top supporters from his home state abandoned him to support one of Warren’s rivals within days of his endorsement of the Massachusetts senator.
It all raised doubts about Castro’s pull among other Latinos in Texas and his suitability as a running mate who could help Democrats carry the traditionally Republican Lone Star State and its 38 electoral votes in November. The last Democratic presidential nominee to carry Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Now, on top of that, Warren’s meek early showings have left some supporters like Marilyn Redding of San Marcos, Texas, disillusioned and frustrated.
“We have talked about it, and at this point we feel that Warren is getting overtaken by Bernie so yes we think [Castro] hung his star on the wrong candidate,” said Redding.
Others like Isabel Rosas of San Pedro, Calif., were shaken but are not jumping ship.
“I believe in Elizabeth Warren,” said Rosas, looking forward to California’s primary on Super Tuesday, “and still am happy that Julian chose to stand by her!”
Tony Castro, @Tony_Castro, is a Los Angeles-based author and journalist covering the 2020 presidential election for a book about Latino politics. He is the author of seven books, among them Chicano Power: The Emergence of Mexican America (Dutton, 1974).